如何建立超详细的AARRR模型数据指标体系?

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什么是AARRR模型?

AARRR分别代表了五个单词,又分别对应了产品生命周期中的五个阶段:

  1. 获取(Acquisition):用户如何发现(并来到)你的产品?
  2. 激活(Activation):用户的第一次使用体验如何?
  3. 留存(Retention):用户是否还会回到产品(重复使用)?
  4. 收入(Revenue):产品怎样(通过用户)赚钱?
  5. 传播(Refer):用户是否愿意告诉其他用户?

AARRR模型指出了两个核心点:

  1. 以用户为中心,以完整的用户生命周期为线索。
  2. 把控产品整体的成本/收入关系,用户生命周期价值(LTV)远大于用户获取成本(CAC)与用户经营成本(COC)之和,就意味着产品的成功。

AARRR的数据指标

1. 获取用户(acquisition)

获取阶段即产品的推广阶段,也是产品运营的第一步。

运营者通过各种推广渠道,以各种方式获取目标用户,并对各种营销渠道的效果进行评估,从而更加合理的确定投入策略,最小化用户获取成本(CAC)。

这时需关注的指标主要为:

1)日新登用户数(DNU)

定义:每日注册并登录游戏的用户数。

此处注册为广义概念,对于一些APP而言,则是首次启动进入APP的用户。所以对于DNU的定义也可以是:首次登录或启动APP的用户。

需要说明的是:在移动统计中,有时候用户也特指设备。

解决问题:

  • 渠道贡献的用户份额。
  • 宏观走势,确定投放策略。
  • 是否存在大量垃圾用户。
  • 注册转化率分析。
2. 提高活跃度(activation)

新增用户经过沉淀转化为活跃(Activation)用户。这时我们需要关注活动用户的数量以及用户使用频次、停留时间的数据。

1)日活跃用户数(DAU)

定义:每日登录过游戏的用户数。

对于某些APP而言,启动就是一个活跃用户,而另一些则要通过账号注册,形成一个网络账号,才算作一个活跃用户。活跃用户的计算是排重的。

解决问题:

  • 核心用户规模。
  • 产品生命周期分析。
  • 产品活跃用户流失,分解活跃用户。
  • 用户活跃率,活跃用户计用户量。

2)周活跃用户数(WAU)

定义:最近7日(含当日)登录过APP的用户数,一般按照自然周计算。

解决问题:

  • 周期性用户规模。
  • 周期性变化趋势,主要是推广期和非推广期的比较。

3)月活跃用户数(MAU)

定义:最近一个月即30日(含当日)登录过APP的用户数,一般按照自然月计算。

MAU变化幅度较小,产品用户规模稳定性来说,MAU是风向标。但在推广时期,版本更新、运营活动的调整,对于MAU的冲击则更加明显。

此外,产品的生命周期阶段不同,MAU的趋势变化也不同。

解决问题:

  • 用户规模稳定性。
  • 推广效果评估。
  • 总体用户规模变化。

4)日均使用时长(DAOT)

定义:每日总计在线时长/日活跃用户数。

关于使用时长,可以分为单次使用时长、日使用时长和周使用时长等指标,通过对这些指标做区间分布和平均计算,了解参与黏性。

解决问题:

  • 分析产品的质量问题。
  • 观察不同时间维度的平均使用时长,了解不同用户群的习惯。
  • 渠道质量衡量标准之一。
  • 留存即流失分析的依据。

5)DAU/MAU

通过DAU/MAU可以看出用户每月访问App的平均天数是多少,比如:某个App拥有50万DAU,100万MAU,其DAU/MAU比值就是0.5——即用户每月平均访问的时间是30*0.5=15天。这也是评估用户粘性的一个比较重要的指标。

DAU/MAU介于3.33%到100%之间,但显然这两种情况现实中基本不可能出现。在不同领域的App会有不同的基准值可参考,例如:移动游戏会以20%为基线,王者荣耀在2017年6月和9月的值基本都在31%左右,而工具类App会以40%为基线。

DAU/MAU的值越高,那么毫无疑问,App的粘性越强,表示有更多的用户愿意使用App。

反之如果DAU/MAU的值很低,但并不能直接说这个App是失败的。

我们还需要结合产品属性(比如定期理财/求职/买房/租房的App,可能天然属性DAU会相对低)、时间考量(工作日/假期等)、版本更新、运营活动、用户维度的ARPU值等多个条件进行多维分析,才能得出结论。

所以,正确理解DAU/MAU的意义很重要。


留存(retention)

解决了活跃度的问题,又发现了另一个问题:“用户来得快、走得也快”。有时候我们也说是游戏没有用户粘性或者留存。

我们需要可以用于衡量用户粘性和质量的指标,这是一种评判APP初期能否留下用户和活跃用户规模增长的手段,留存率(Retention)是手段之一。

留存率:某段时间的新增用户数,记为A,经过一段时间后,仍然使用的用户占新增用户A的比例即为留存率。

1)次日留存率(Day 1Retention Ratio)

定义:日新增用户在+1日登录的用户数占新增用户的比例。

2)三日留存率(Day 3Retention Ratio)

定义:日新增用户在+3日登录的用户数占新增用户的比例。

3)七日留存率(Day 7Retention Ratio)

定义:日新增用户在+7日登录的用户数占新增用户的比例。

留存率逐渐演变为评判产品质量的重要标准。

在关注留存率的同时,也要关心流失率的分析。留存率更加关心的是,从用户获取的角度综合分析获取用户的渠道方式是否合理,产品用户规模是否能够增长。而流失率则关心为什么有些用户离开APP,这可能是在用户获取阶段就存在的问题,但是当APP存在稳定用户规模后,一个付费用户的流失,却可能让APP收入大幅下滑。

留存率的计算可以按照统计的时间区间来划定,例如:在计算周留存时,计算新增用户周留存则是一周总计的新增量在随后每周的留存情况。

上面提到的+3日或者+7日,意在着重强调,第3日和第7日的概念。注意,计算留存率时,新增当日是不被计入天数的,也就是说我们提到的留存用户。指的是新增用户新增后的第1天留存、第3天留存和第7天留存。

解决问题:

  • APP质量评估。
  • 用户质量评估。
  • 用户规模衡量。

流失:统计时间区间内,用户在不同的时期离开APP的情况。

4)日流失率(Day 1Churn Ratio)

定义:统计日登录APP,但随后7日未登录APP的用户占统计日活跃用户的比例。

5)周流失率(Week Churn Ratio)

定义:上周登录过APP,但是本周未登录过APP的用户占上周周活跃用户的比例。

6)月流失率(Month Churn Ratio)

定义:上月登录过APP,但是本月未登录过APP的用户占上月月活跃用户的比例。

流失率是在APP进入稳定期需要重点关注的指标,如果说关注留存是关注APP用户前期进入APP的情况,那么关注流失率则是在产品中期和后期关心产品的用户稳定性,收益能力转化。

稳定期的收益和活跃都很稳定,如果存在较大的流失率,则需要通过该指标起到警示作用,并逐步查找哪部分用户离开了APP,问题出在哪里。尤其是对付费用户流失的分析,更需要重点关心。

解决问题:

  • 活跃用户生命周期分析。
  • 渠道的变化情况。
  • 拉动收入的运营手段,版本更新对于用户的流失影响评估。
  • 什么时期的流失率较高。
  • 行业比较和产品中期评估。

收入(revenue)

收入的来源有很多种,主要包括:应用付费、应用内功能付费、广告收入、流量变现等,主要考核的指标比如ARPU(客单价)。

主要关注:

1)付费率(PR或者PUR)

定义:付费用户数占活跃用户的比例。

通俗地说,付费率也称作付费渗透率,在移动APP市场,多数只关心日付费率——即Daily Payment Ratio。

付费率的高低不代表产品的付费用户增加或减少付费率在不同APP类型的产品中表现也是不同的。

解决问题:

  • 产品的收益转化能力标准。
  • 用户付费关键点和转化周期。
  • 付费转化效果评估。

2)活跃付费用户数(APA)

定义:在统计时间区间内,成功付费的用户数。一般按照月计,在国际市场也称作MPU(Monthly Paying Users)。

在数据分析中,更加切实地关注日付费用户和周付费用户,主要原因是用户的生命周期短暂,短期付费成为关注焦点。

活跃付费用户数的计算公式如下:

APA=MAU×MPR

解决问题:

  • 产品的付费用户规模。
  • APA的构成情况,鲸鱼用户、海豚用户、小鱼用户的比例以及收益能力。
  • 付费群体的价值即整体稳定性分析。

3)平均每用户收入(ARPU)

定义:在统计时间内,活跃用户产生的平均收入。一般以月计。

平均每个用户收入的计算公式如下:

ARPU=Revenue/User

Monthly ARPU=Revenue/MAU

即总收入除以总活跃用户数,一般按照月计。

严格定义的ARPU不同于国内所认识的ARPU,国内的ARPU=总收入/付费用户数。所以,很多时候会强调付费ARPU,此处有专门的术语叫作ARPPU。

ARPU用于产品定位初期的不同规模下的收入估计,也是LTV的重要参考依据。

解决问题:

  • 不同渠道用户质量的判断。
  • 产品收益贡献分析。
  • 活跃用户人均收入与投放成本的关系。

4)平均每付费用户收入(ARPPU)

定义:在统计时间内,付费用户产生的平均收入。一般以月计。

平均每付费用户收入的计算公式如下:

ARPPU=Revenue/Payment User

Monthly ARPPU=Revenue/APA

即总收入除以总付费用户数,一般以月计。

ARPPU容易受到鲸鱼用户和小鱼用户的影响,分析时需谨慎。

ARPPU与APA、MPR的结合可以分析付费用户的留存情况,对特定付费群体的流失进行深度分析,保证付费质量和规模。

解决问题:

  • 付费用户的付费能力和梯度变化。
  • 付费用户的整体付费趋势和不同付费阶层差异。
  • 对鲸鱼用户的价值挖掘。

5)生命周期价值(LTV)

定义:用户在生命周期内为创造的收入总和。可以看成是一个长期累积的ARPU。

对每个用户的平均LTV计算如下。

LTV=ARPU×LT(按月或天计算平均生命周期)

其中,LT为Life Time(生命周期):即一个用户从第一次启动APP,到最后一次的时间,一般计算平均值,LT以月计,就是留存在APP的平均月的数量。

例如:一款APP的ARPU=¥2,LT=5,那么LTV=2×5=¥10。

以上的计算方式在理论上是可行的,在实际中我们采取以下的LTV计算方法。

跟踪某日或者某周的新增用户,计算该批用户在随后的7日、14日、30日的累积收入贡献,然后除以该批新增用户数,即累积收入/新增用户=累积ARPU(LTV)。

此种方式可计算该批新增用户在不同生命周期阶段的粗略生命周期价值。

解决问题:

  • 用户收益贡献周期。
  • 用户群与渠道的利润贡献,LTV与CPA的衡量。
  • LTV不区分付费与非付费用户,看待整体的价值。
5. 传播(refer)

自传播也叫作口碑传播或者病毒式传播。其中有一个重要的指标K因子。

K因子的计算公式不算复杂,过程如下:

K=(每个用户向他的朋友们发出的邀请的数量)×(接收到邀请的人转化为新用户的转化率)。

假设平均每个用户会向20个朋友发出邀请,而平均的转化率为10%,则K=20×10%=2。

当K>1时,用户群就会像滚雪球一样增大。

当K<1时,用户群到某个规模时就会停止通过自传播增长。

绝大部分APP还不能完全依赖于自传播,还必须和其他营销方式结合。但是,在产品设计阶段就加入有利于自传播的功能,还是有必要的,毕竟这种免费的推广方式可以部分地减少CAC。

以上是AARRR模型的数据指标体系,只有建立完善的数据指标体系,我们后续才可以对用户行为进行更全面的分析。

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